American embassy cables leaked by whistleblower website WikiLeaks reveal that the US conducted its own secret analysis of India's military contingency plans codenamed 'Cold Start', the 'Guardian' reported.
"It is the collective judgment of the mission that India would likely encounter very mixed results. Indian forces could have significant problems consolidating initial gains due to logistical difficulties and slow reinforcement," read an American cable.
But the US ambassador to India, Timothy Roemer warned in February that for India to launch 'Cold Start', would be to "roll the nuclear dice".
US diplomats in Islamabad were told that Pakistan was working on producing smaller, tactical nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield against Indian troops.
"Indian leaders no doubt realise that, although 'Cold Start' is designed to punish Pakistan in a limited manner without triggering a nuclear response, they cannot be sure whether Pakistani leaders will in fact refrain from such a response."
"The result of this trend is the need for greater stocks of fissile material... Strategic considerations point Pakistan in the direction of a larger nuclear force that requires a greater amount of fissile material, Pakistani officials argue," an extract from one of the cables published by the daily said.
Peter Lavoy, national intelligence officer for South Asia, concluded in November 2008 that nuclear-armed Pakistan's economy was "in tatters" and the country could "completely lose control of its Pashtun territories over the next few years", according to a leaked US cable.
WikiLeaks: Pakistan military cast in Gorgeous life
Similarly, older memos have revealed support for former president and chief of army staff Pervez Musharraf from various countries, including the UAE and Israel. A 2007 memo says, “The United States Government will continue to support Pakistani President Musharraf, and is seeking to boost his military defensive capabilities.”
The head of France’s interagency Afghanistan-Pakistan cell Jasmine Zerinini told a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in January 2010, “General Kayani has ‘learned the lesson of Musharraf’ and was staying behind the scenes.”
Even though US officials describe the changes in Pakistan as ‘dramatic’ and ‘encouraging’, the credit is given to the Pakistan Army. Global support for the civilian set-up appears almost non-existent. According to a March 2009 memo, “The Saudis say they have been holding back economic and political support pending evidence that the political situation in Pakistan is stabilising.”
Zerinini is also quoted as saying that France “does not want to return to a relationship (with Pakistan) based on military equipment sales, as in the 1980s, and is instead focusing on counter terrorism in addition to economic and trade links.”
“However, he is manipulating the government and parliament, to prevent change on Pakistan’s policy towards Federally Administered Tribal Areas along the Afghan border, and also to stir up controversy regarding the Kerry-Lugar bill that ties continued US aid to increased civilian control of the military.”
Jasmine Zerinini also “argued that the west had missed its opportunity to push the Pakistani military to crush the Afghan Taliban taking refuge in Pakistan. Citing Jalaladin Haqqani as an example, Zerinini said in 2004 he had standing as a leader in the jihadi community, but did not have the organisation to represent a significant military threat. However, since then, large amounts of funding, predominately from Gulf donors, have allowed Haqqani to create a network that would be difficult for the Pakistani military to defeat, even if it had the will to do so.”
US officials highlighted the success of Pakistan’s military operations in several meetings. The chief of the Turkish General Staff General Ilker Basbug met with US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates in Ankara on February 6, 2010. The memo states, “Basbug also raised Pakistan, recalling his October visit at the invitation of General Kayani. During his visit to Swat he had witnessed a hundred-fold improvement in security since his previous visit, citing the return of civilian populations to the region as a clear success for Pakistani forces. Gates agreed, observing that the degree of success by Pakistani forces ran counter to all of our intelligence predictions.”
Gates praised the Pakistan Army in a meeting with France’s Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on February 8, 2010. The memo states, “SecDef (Gates) described the dramatic changes that had taken place over the past year.”
Gates also noted that it was “astonishing that President Zardari had remained in power and that the Pakistanis had conducted such effective COIN (counter-insurgency) operations.”
However France’s Minister of Defence Herve Morin struck a different tone in his meeting with Gates the same day. Morin “expressed doubt about the willingness of the Pakistani government to fight extremists at home.” Morin said Afghan President Hamid Karzai had told France that if the Pakistan-Afghanistan border was closed, it would largely solve issues in Afghanistan.
In a June 2009 meeting between then US Centcom Commander General David Petraeus and Egyptian General Intelligence Service Chief Omar Soliman, Petraeus is quoted as saying he was “encouraged by the Pakistani military’s operations in the Swat Valley and Northwest Frontier Province, including their focus on holding and rebuilding affected areas.”
Soliman, according to the memo, “credited the Pakistani government for doing a better job of convincing people that extremists pose a real threat to Pakistani national security.”
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